基于灰色理论的油气管道腐蚀速率预测

    Prediction of Corrosion Rate of Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on Grey Theory

    • 摘要: 油气管道在运行时,受环境和管输介质的影响,不可避免的会出现腐蚀,进而造成各种安全事故,因此对管道腐蚀速率进行预测就显得十分有必要。然而影响管道腐蚀的因素有很多,多种因素协同作用,构成异常复杂的腐蚀体系,并且很难找到腐蚀速率与各影响变量之间的函数关系,经典的腐蚀预测方法变得不再适用。采用灰色理论对管道腐蚀进行研究,对各影响变量与腐蚀速率进行灰色关联分析,选取主要影响因素;通过原始数据建立灰色预测模型GM(0,N)和GM(1,N),并进行精度检验。结果表明,二者均可应用于管道腐蚀速率预测,且均满足1级精度;并对灰色预测模型的精度改进方面提出建议。

       

      Abstract: Under the influence of environment and pipeline medium, oil and gas pipeline inevitably generate corrosion during operation, which can cause various safety accidents. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the corrosion rate of pipeline.However, there are many factors affecting pipeline corrosion, many factors work together to form an extremely complex corrosion system, and it is difficult to establish a clear functional expression between the corrosion rate and the influencing variables, so the classical corrosion prediction method is difficult to play a role. Therefore, the gray theory was used to study the pipeline corrosion. Firstly, the gray correlation analysis was carried out on the influencing variables and corrosion rate, and the main influencing factors were selected. Then, the grey prediction models GM(0, N) and GM(1, N) were established based on the original data, and the accuracy was tested. The results show that both of them can be applied to the prediction of pipeline corrosion rate, and both of them meet the first level accuracy. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to improve the accuracy of the grey prediction model.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回